Week 2 is a validation week. Teams that upset in week 1 or blew out opp. and then blowout their next opponent begin establishing themselves as potentially elite teams. Watch Kansas City, Buffalo, Rams,Titans, Giants, 49ers and Falcons. These will mostly be the public, square bets this week, but the ones that win I’ll take another look at because, again, they’ve possibly begun to validate themselves.
Once teams are fully established as elite, there isn’t much value in them though. I do two things with elite teams: 1. I try to avoid betting against them unless I feel they’re in a let down spot. 2. I pick my spots with them.
One of the largest NFL bets I ever made was on the New England Patriots in week 5 of last season (2014 season) when they were 2 point home dogs. They killed the Bengals 43-17! That is a “spot” for a team that established themselves over the course of many years. The Patriots started that season poorly, but seemed to just fall back onto the fact that they’re 111-23-0 SU (+10.28 ppg, 82.8%) SU in Foxborough. How in the holy hell would they ever be underdogs when they’re playing there?
So anyways, tons of overreactions this week. Time to see which wins were legit and which losses were fluke / unlucky. Enjoy!