Updated on July 24, 2015 in NFL Betting Trends
4 on July 20, 2015


We are quickly closing in on the NFLX season. there are so many that bet the games, there are many more that don’t. It doesn’t matter to me which of those camps your in, because there are things to be learned about the games, and today in the newsletter we will focus on the only games that are considered to be legit, and that would be dress rehearsal week 3, where all the starters, including QB’s are on the field the most in the NFLX.

So what can we take away from these games? I follow thinks that many cappers do not, and a lot of things I have never written about in the newsletter, but today I will share something I have followed for a considerable time.

So what happens to a team, that comes out in the dress rehearsal, NFLX game 3, and lays an egg on offense? These teams have proven to mostly being not ready to compete, when the season opens in week 1, and the entire season.


When a team comes out in NFLX game 3, and scores less than a TD (6 points or less), is it significant? I’ll let the reader decide by supplying some pertinent information:


Since the start of the 2005-06 season, any team that scored 6 points or less in NFLX game 3, they have opened the season at 3-15 SU and 6-12 ATS. Small numbers indeed, but your not going to get big numbers on this kind of situation, because of what it is. What appears to be more significant is the 10 year consistency.

11 of the 18 teams scored 15 points or less in their season opener. Home has been a problem as they are 2-7 ATS, while the road shows 4-5 ATS.

These teams have also tanked the season, as the 18 teams have a combined season record of 100-187-1 SU winning just 34.8% of their games. If I was a fan, I would truly be worried if my team lays an offensive egg in the dress rehearsal.

Just 2 of the 18 teams went on to have a winning season, and one of those was 9-7!

2/3 or 12 lost 10 or more games, 11 of them lost 11 or more games, and 7 of the 18 went on to lose 12 or more games (watch for season wins futures).

These teams failed to cover as a rule all season long, as fading them led to a 53.8% win rate, so marking these teams, and playing against them in the right spot, you have a profitable edge, without doing anything! The under has really popped for these teams, as the inept offense revealed itself in NFLX game 3, and 55% of the 288 games played out under the total. If you did no week to week handicapping on any of these teams covering 288 games, you win 53.8% sides, and 55% totals!

So there you have the facts, and one more thing worth mentioning. I love these types of systems, because they are completely “stealthy.” The odds makers are simply not going to catch up to these teams, they don’t make the link from NFLX week 3 to week 1, or week 12! The staggering part of this is, most bad teams do well in the NFL, simply because it is a contrarian league, so the evidence here says to me, there is a good chance these teams were supposed to be better, but just weren’t!

So the ball is now in your court, pass? or play?

Best of Luck,

  • Liked by
  • parlayfenk
  • 3rdandlong
  • pcg
2 on July 20, 2015

Hi wiz, just joined from the other forum. I’m really glad to see that Joe made this forum too so we can bump heads with building systems and I’m glad to see that you came over. You made some excellent posts over there.

Good thread/study. Come week 3 we can identify the fade teams.

What about in NFL preseason itself? I never know what to bet other than coaching angles, but I think everyone is looking at those. The best I ever do is come out with 1 or 2 units in hand.

on July 20, 2015

Thanks. The NFLX coaching theory has certainly been a productive way to go about handicapping the NFLX, but like many things that are obvious, the odds makers apparently have caught up, and it has not been very predictive of late. I have become very selective in the process the last few years. What was interesting was the rising totals in NFLX games.

From 2009-13 totals posted 36.5 or less (37 very key #), the over was 93-57, while 37 and up the over was 85-84. Odds makers kept chasing the rising totals, and appeared to catch up last year, as totals of 36.5 or less were 0-3 to the over, and all of those occurred in week 1 or HOF game.

So that window has been closed now as well. So now we may see a reversal, as last year totals in the NFLX that were posted from 44 and up went 9-2-1 o the under. remember, just 1 yr, and small data set, but the window may be open to wager under on the new big totals. (not enough data for me, but on my radar). By the same token, the disappearing low totals, in the 30s, were 7-2 to the under, so the adjustment may be too universal across the board and the low totals have gone too far.

on July 22, 2015

I agree with you there. Following coaching angles isn’t….an angle anymore really. Can eek out a tiny profit that way at best. 

Thanks for the main post; will be interesting to follow the teams that fall into your catagory this season.

Does anyone know, will Joe and Ed from SDB be posting here?

Show more replies
  • Liked by
0 on July 24, 2015

I saw you in the other SDB forum for many years posting great stuff. So glad to see ‘weatherwizard’ posting here. I agree with all of you guys; this will be a good recurring thread throughout the season to keep a watch on this team.

Great forum environment. Only suggestion: should all of this great stuff really be open to the public? I was a member of “foxden” for a while years ago and really appreciated high value content exclusive / non-public. Any thoughts?

  • Liked by