System that works well in August [Need Help]

Updated on July 24, 2015 in MLB Betting Trends
2 on July 24, 2015

Thanks guys for setting this forum up. I don’t know SDQL at all, but I have a system I’m willing to share that has always seemed to kill it in the tough month of August. In my opinion, that is a mark of a good system: does it hold up in August. I have so many things that just fall apart in this month and most smart gamblers I’ve talked to hate August. Trade deadlines; stats flip flop. It is madness.

Anyways, if someone could convert this to SDQL for me I’d be most grateful

I look to play on a home team withing 25 or 30 cents of pickem off of a game where they had 3+ errors vs. a road team off of 3+ games with ZERO errors.

Why this works: late in the season, people overreact to errors while I’m always seeing value in a team that just screwed up because I think they’ll be motivated to redeem the embarassment. Other team won’t be taking them seriously and the betting public won’t be either.

This has worked for me for many years. In addition, playing ON teams that have poor numbers for errors per game on the season post trade deadline is a good place to start late season. Will leave that system for later though.

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  • pcg
0 on July 24, 2015

Hi there, I try to develop your strategy step by step.
I think keeping it simple is a key. When you look at errors only this will leave you with 140+ games. I think that is good enough.
Simple form with errors only
Second step (Yield increases, profit nearly stays the same):
Opponents had 0 errors
Third step
Two games with 0 errors
Looks like a good run line strategy.
Works excellent in June
 like this one a lot
Good luck in June and August

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0 on July 24, 2015

Cherry, nice analysis. I don’t think he said to make this exclusive to August though; rather, it just performs well in August.

I like the premise PF; thanks for sharing that. Here is the exact translation expanded to 40 cents out of pickem:

140>=line>=-140 and H and p:errors>2 and oS(errors=0,N=3)=3
(just change the 140 values around ‘line’ to 125 to see those results)

Turns out to be 48-25 +23.73 units, +28.8% roi SU.
Not too bad!
Lost only 3 out of 12 seasons.
(Has been 7-4 +3.7 units in Augusts)

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