sdql success

Updated on July 22, 2017 in SDQL Questions
10 on July 7, 2017

I have an mlb sdql with the following
1700 games rated
68% WL ratio
ROI of 5.2%
and if you search by year the ROI and WL ratio are stable
all my sdql is common sense not oddities or strange occurences example line and total and a streak NOT after a tuesday win and a win by 2 points exactly on tuesdays

my question is this is my first true sdql and I am wondering can I use it as predictive?
I mean will it roughly assuming not much changes will it show a 5% roi?
can I expect a game scheduled today to win at a 68%ish rate?

I know I am not clear but I hope you get the point I am trying to make

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0 on July 7, 2017

There isn’t really a way to answer your question.  Test it in real time and see if it works.  My own experience is that most don’t hold up in real time.

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0 on July 7, 2017

what do you mean they dont hold up, what is the long term issue?

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0 on July 8, 2017

There is a method some call ‘Monte Carlo’ — 
where you would research systems like this with a substantial amount of data left out at random.

If the question is, ‘how will this system stand against the tests of time?’, this is a fair way of gauging that. Not perfect, but there is no perfect in gambling…

As for bur char’s statement about it not standing up against the tests of time. I’m not sure about that; however, a healthy grasp of ‘regression to the mean’ is good to keep in your back pocket. Will 68% success rate hold up even with simple parameters? Usually not with the same degree of success. Especially unlikely if adding a parameter so obscure (no exactly 2 run wins after a Tuesday is like saying, ‘ The Patriots are 10-0 when my dog pooped 3 times on a wednesday after 5 pm in the front yard’

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0 on July 8, 2017

my sdql has none of those crazy parameters. People always make these wacko sdqls and wonder how they dont win.

Rule #1 for me, the sdql has to make common sense to me before I even search it.

and I also believe an sdql is useless for football because of the drastiv weather but I believe it is perfect for the mlb.

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0 on July 9, 2017

So what is the logic behind

a streak NOT after a tuesday win and a win by 2 points exactly on tuesdaysFrom danshan11
?

 

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1 on July 9, 2017

the logic is that is garbage and that is what most people build sdqls on.  my sdql is normal common sense criteria.

Admin
on July 9, 2017

Oh ok. I misunderstood. Thought you said you were giving an example parameter that sounded like non-sense to me. Sorry about that.

Anyways, yes, I think the vast majority of ‘good’ trends found….even those found by the best of the best of whatever….will regress away from their great records. The roi generally goes down namely if not a complete reversal. 

The idea of what SPECIFICALLY makes any gambling system merely viable is an art.

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0 on July 9, 2017

why does the ROI drop? I mean its easy to say it just goes away but my ROI has been consistent  on sdql for the 14 years its been around

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1 on July 11, 2017

I think it is really crazy that no one can really give a solid answer on this question.  I mean sdql has been around for 15 years

Admin
on July 22, 2017

Well, your question isn’t really specific to SDQL; more of an analytical quandary we all have in betting. The question you asked, “why does the ROI drop?” — I was just saying, my two cents is that the ROI generally will go down or in reverse with most systems. So then if you wanted to perhaps make your question more specific, you might ask instead, why does ‘REGRESSION’ occur. Any thoughts from you on the matter dan?

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