NFL International Series ROT Exploit

Updated on April 7, 2017 in NFL Betting Trends
1 on December 21, 2015

I had this idea that the Favorite with the EVEN rotation number might be over-valued in NFL games played in Wembly since 2007. I made a query for that:

((team=Chiefs and date=20151101) or (team=Jaguars and date=20151025) or (team=Dolphins and date=20151004) or (team=Jaguars and date=20141109) or (team=Falcons and date=20141026) or (team=Raiders and date=20140928) or (team=Jaguars and date=20131027) or (team=Dolphins and date=20071028) or (team=Saints and date=20081026) or (team=Rams and date=20121028) or (team=Buccaneers and date=20091025) or (team=Vikings and date=20130929) or (team=49ers and date=20101031) or (team=Buccaneers and date=20111023))

The idea is that betters will just see the line on the sheet at a place like covers or sbrodds and think the game is played in the US with a home team and road team. In our database, the site for these games should be neutral. Over at statfox, all of these games are either home or away instead of neutral…and their trends will say for example: the Chiefs are X-Y at home for a game in Wembly.

I couldn’t really confirm this idea though because the even rotation number (false home team) has been a dog the vast majority of the time.

Interestingly though:

All underdogs of 4 points or more went 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS:

((team=Chiefs and date=20151101) or (team=Jaguars and date=20151025) or (team=Dolphins and date=20151004) or (team=Jaguars and date=20141109) or (team=Falcons and date=20141026) or (team=Raiders and date=20140928) or (team=Jaguars and date=20131027) or (team=Dolphins and date=20071028) or (team=Saints and date=20081026) or (team=Rams and date=20121028) or (team=Buccaneers and date=20091025) or (team=Vikings and date=20130929) or (team=49ers and date=20101031) or (team=Buccaneers and date=20111023))  and (line>=4 or line<=-4)

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  • pcg
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0 on April 7, 2017

I love this. I always wondered about how rotation number implied site in neutral locations.

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