MLB Final Countdown [Vote]

Updated on September 26, 2015 in General Discussion
7 on September 24, 2015

In my newsletter today, I am talking about how there are 11 days left of regular season. Here is an interesting trend:

*From September 25ths until the end of regular season, the dog has generally prevailed. But not so much recently!
From 2004 to 2010, the dog went 321-421 +44.45 units SU (+6.1% roi) on the blind
From 2011 to date, the dog went 122-192 -26.38 units SU. Favorites profited on the blind +11.07 units.

What is your vote:
A. Favorites prevail this season from today on until the 4th of next month.
or
B. Dogs come back.
or
C. Neither will profit on the blind.

Here is the SDQL is used:

playoffs=0 and int(str(date)[4:])>=925 and D and season>2010

playoffs=0 and int(str(date)[4:])>=925 and D and season<=2010

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3 on September 24, 2015

Also see if you can figure out a system that has profitted CONSISTENTLY from 2004 to 2014 using the following code as a start:

playoffs=0 and 925<=int (str(date)[4:])

If anyone knows how to query, last N days of regular season, that would be a more accurate way of looking at this. Thanks…

Author
on September 24, 2015

To query the last n days of the regular season just refer to game number in the query, ie.

game number>155 and game number<163

Subscriber
on September 26, 2015

How about this:
season>2009 and 162-game number<10 and playoffs=0 and H and line<=-220

52-16 +12.35 units (76.5%) SU

That is a surprising thing for me to see since I’m used to big let downs with the high chalk at the tail end of the regular season.

Active (to play) on the Cardinals -250 and Nationals -260

Definately not betting those. In longer term history, I have more situations FOR the Brewers and Phillies here, but you can’t deny the recent trend.

That’s my (Late) vote: Favorites profit > Dogs. 
Not willing to place money on that though!

Subscriber
on September 26, 2015

Here’s the let down spot for that though:
<p>
season>2009 and 162-game number<10 and playoffs=0 and H and line<=-220 and series games>2 and (n:series game=1 or series game=3) 
<p>
20-10 -5.35 units – The Cardinals fall into this spot so I think if you’re looking at the Brewers you might be ok.

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0 on September 24, 2015

Nice. Thank you Wiz.

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0 on September 24, 2015

Not sure how to do this, but working back from the date of game number 162 might do it.
This doesn’t work but something like:
date>Average(date@team and season and game number=162)-11 and D

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0 on September 24, 2015

Here is a dog trend that has come through most years since 2004, but has sputtered a bit recently. Not outside of marginal sputter though:

31-37 -25.37 units and +30.6% roi to fade.

That’s a late reg. season Favorites off a loss, now playing at a new site.

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