Is this the worst season for dogs?

Updated on September 2, 2015 in MLB Betting Trends
4 on August 27, 2015

I am following 3 systems on dogs, and they are performing badly this year. So I took a look on how dogs are performing this season compared to other season.

2359 981-1378 (-0.70, 41.6%) 142.1 -156.8 -$2,210 -$11,130 season = 2004
2349 1006-1343 (-0.63, 42.8%) 137.7 -151.0 +$300 -$12,630 season = 2005
2372 1031-1341 (-0.53, 43.5%) 134.8 -148.0 +$850 -$13,550 season = 2006
2381 1017-1364 (-0.71, 42.7%) 135.2 -148.0 -$1,250 -$11,290 season = 2007
2372 1009-1363 (-0.67, 42.5%) 133.7 -146.4 -$5,645 -$6,400 season = 2008
2364 989-1375 (-0.69, 41.8%) 135.0 -148.2 -$7,595 -$4,605 season = 2009
2370 990-1380 (-0.80, 41.8%) 139.2 -152.7 -$4,292 -$8,374 season = 2010
2352 984-1368 (-0.60, 41.8%) 132.9 -145.1 -$9,331 -$2,209 season = 2011
2375 998-1377 (-0.68, 42.0%) 133.2 -145.5 -$8,419 -$3,077 season = 2012
2385 998-1387 (-0.64, 41.8%) 135.7 -148.1 -$7,477 -$4,379 season = 2013
2358 1014-1344 (-0.58, 43.0%) 130.5 -141.8 -$6,477 -$4,324 season = 2014
1826 761-1065 (-0.65, 41.7%) 128.3 -139.1 -$11,785 +$3,820 season = 2015

As you can see, it’s the worst season based on money returned. Just betting on all favorites with no filter, is making money. I also noticed that the average odds are the lowest.

Season 2015
309 141-168 (-0.43, 45.6%) 123.2 -133.9 -$25 -$1,408 month = 4
416 184-232 (-0.47, 44.2%) 124.5 -135.0 -$714 -$1,182 month = 5
390 163-227 (-0.68, 41.8%) 128.7 -139.5 -$2,180 +$451 month = 6
368 146-222 (-0.68, 39.7%) 130.1 -140.8 -$3,634 +$2,152 month = 7
343 127-216 (-1.02, 37.0%) 134.8 -146.3 -$5,232 +$3,807 month = 8

Previous Season
40 14-26 (-1.10, 35.0%) 141.4 -154.7 -$611 +$399 month = 3
3800 1692-2108 (-0.51, 44.5%) 131.7 -143.7 +$6,308 -$25,543 month = 4
4467 1888-2579 (-0.64, 42.3%) 131.7 -143.7 -$15,179 -$6,397 month = 5
4260 1857-2403 (-0.56, 43.6%) 132.5 -144.5 +$21 -$21,422 month = 6
4126 1676-2450 (-0.83, 40.6%) 134.8 -147.6 -$25,901 +$5,614 month = 7
4486 1840-2646 (-0.75, 41.0%) 139.3 -153.0 -$15,726 -$7,748 month = 8
4288 1787-2501 (-0.68, 41.7%) 142.2 -157.0 -$4,452 -$19,881 month = 9
566 262-304 (-0.36, 46.3%) 135.0 -147.2 +$4,134 -$7,120 month = 10
4 1-3 (-1.75, 25.0%) 158.8 -171.2 -$140 +$130 month = 11

The season is not finished but it seems like this season will be the worst for dogs. Do you have an explanation on why the odds are lower this season? Since dogs are not performing well I was expecting the bookmaker to adjust and make them more attractive compared to favorites. Or maybe they expect them to rebound before the end of the season.

  • Liked by
Reply
0 on August 27, 2015

Hi there, I can not agree more. My own estimations have a lot of Dogs Trends ongoing. n recent years I made about 100+ Units Profit based on that. This year it dropped to a loss of 50 Units so far. Here are some of my explanations.

Look at this. The scoring dropped significantly. Maybe the structure of the games changed or the usage of pitchers changed significantly. Lets take a look at some deeper stats.

The usage of pitchers dropped dramatically. Yes the last month of the regular season is missing, yet there is a strange drop down in usage. Combine that with the fact that the number of walks decreased. I can see a change in gameplay structure influencing the outcome.

  • Liked by
Reply
Cancel
0 on August 27, 2015

Sounds like they’ve increased the strike zone.

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&sdql=A%28strike+outs%401%29%40season+and+month%3C9&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

  • Liked by
Reply
Cancel
0 on August 29, 2015

I’ve been more favorites this season than ever before. That is where I am consistently finding the value. Not sure what the explanation is, but I have a hunch that there have been more public dogs recently…that is, there is more of a bias now to bet dogs over favorites with the general betting public.

May not be true. Just a thought.

I’m up 12% this season. Not great but not terrible. Betting sports gets harder and hard. As weatherwizard once said to me, the gap is closing.

  • Liked by
Reply
Cancel
0 on September 2, 2015

We were hoping to write an article on the subject but ran out of time unfortunately.
The just of it is comparing these two queries:

D and month<=8 and season
D and month=9 and season

Of the 11 seasons in the database, the three where dogs did the worst through August (2008, 2010 and 2011) all saw those seasons turn profits playing on dogs in September. 

Just something to watch if bettors start shifting too heavily to favorites late in the season.

SBB

  • Liked by
Reply
Cancel