This one started with a hypothesis: Typically professional sports clubs rally back the next game if they lost or at least try, but when do teams get crushed so hard, they come out flat?
I decided to keep things simple and not surprising:
1. An Underdog
2. They scored under 2 runs last game.
3. They allowed 9+ runs…that’s 1 for every inning.
No surprise, our dog is just 226-353 (39%) SU for a loss of -50.79 units and a mild +2.4% roi to fade.
This system is a bit square though. The best systems have stealthy or contrarian variables. There isn’t anything contrarian about this one so it is worth it to try and tighten this one up from a 550+ game same to something more in the 100 to 150 range. My first thought was to put this underdog in a spot where the public might actually want to bet them.
A couple of thoughts:
–They’re playing at home – people will perceive automatic value.
-It is a series that is tied or early in the series.
Sure enough, both are good filters:
4a. This is a home dog.
This brings is way way up to 64-119 (35.0%) SU -41.86 units, +14% roi to fade.
4b. It is NOT series game 1 for this dog.
Brings it to 152-245 -42.74 units +3.7 roi
Clearly ‘a’ is the better option.
The SDQL for that is:
p:runs < 2 and op:runs > 8 and line>=-105 and site = home
Minor optional filters:
5. Eliminate huge home dogs – this conflicts with another powerful system we have.
61-117 +16.5% roi now.
6. Eliminate very high totals – this also conflicts with a system we have where a high total lends to a 50/50 coin toss situation favoring a dog.
39-92 +24.2% roi now.
p:runs < 2 and op:runs > 8 and -105<=line