Help Me Improve on this 181-120-2 (60.1%) ATS NCAAF System

Updated on September 3, 2015 in NCAAF Betting Trends
4 on September 2, 2015

Here’s what I have:

1. We’re fading a 3-10 pt. Road Favorite
2. It is early season (pre-week 6)
3. Team we’re fading finished last season with 5+ straight wins

This is 181-120-2 (60.1%) ATS

Replace(season@team and pppp:W and ppp:W and pp:W and p:W and W)=season -1 and A and -10<=line<=-3  and month=9 and week<6

If we say that the team did not just play at a neutral site this becomes: 154-91-2 (62.9%) ATS

Replace(season@team and pppp:W and ppp:W and pp:W and p:W and W)=season -1 and A and -10<=line<=-3  and month=9 and week<6 and p:site!=neutral and p:season=season

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0 on September 2, 2015

This term

Replace(season@team and pppp:W and ppp:W and pp:W and p:W and W)=season-1
 
is better translated as:

The team had a streak of at least 5 straight wins last season.

Cheers!

Joe

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0 on September 2, 2015

Thanks Joe. How would you query, ‘finished up the season with 5 straight wins’? 

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0 on September 2, 2015

I believe this would be it.
tpS(W,N=5)=5 and A and -10 <= line <= -3 and month = 9 and week < 6

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0 on September 3, 2015

I’m not sure honestly. Will have to spot check that later on burchar.

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