Good Recent Defensive Performance

Updated on August 6, 2015 in NCAAF Betting Trends
6 on August 2, 2015

Since 1989, good recent defensive performance has been good for road team. Here is a starting point for a system.

 tS(o:points<=14,N=3)=3 and A and season>=1989
 

1. Road team.
2. Allowed 2 TD’s or less in their L3

281-132 (68.0%) SU (profits on moneyline)
236-178.6 (57.0%) ATS – +2.83 z-score

Any ideas on useful, logical filters from here?

  • Liked by
Reply
0 on August 2, 2015

tS(o:points<=14,N=3)=3 and AD and season>=1989 and o:streak <6

76-41-2 (3.80, 65.0%)

my first suggestion. take away the extremes. and look for away dogs.

  • Liked by
Reply
Cancel
0 on August 3, 2015

Hey guys I just ran the above original query in the NFL since 2000 and eliminated playoff games and it returned these results:

SU: 18-27-0 (-2.87, 40.0%)   Teaser Records
ATS: 25-18-2 (1.50, 58.1%)   avg line: 4.4 +6:  35-9-1 (79.5%)   -6:  15-29-1 (34.1%)   +10:  40-5-0 (88.9%)   -10:  7-38-0 (15.6%)  
O/U: 17-28-0 (-1.38, 37.8%)   avg total: 39.9 +6:   12-32-1 (27.3%)   -6:   24-21-0 (53.3%)   +10:   10-35-0 (22.2%)   -10:   29-16-0 (64.4%)  

tS(o:points<=14,N=3) = 3 and AD and season >= 2000 and o:streak < 6 and playoffs = 0

http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?output=default&sdql=tS%28o%3Apoints%3C%3D14%2CN%3D3%29%3D3+and+AD+and+season%3E%3D2000+and+o%3Astreak+%3C6+and+playoffs%3D0&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

  • Liked by
Reply
Cancel
0 on August 4, 2015

You get down to a very small sample size with that but not bad.

How about (combining the two things):

tS(o:points<=14,N=3)=3 and A and season>=1989 and o:streak<6 and line>-36

228-160-5 58.8% ATS

  • Liked by
Reply
Cancel
0 on August 4, 2015
  • Liked by
Reply
Cancel
0 on August 6, 2015

My preference for systems is to shy away from using too many filters on a system, as I’m sure those familiar with our work are aware.  But I think this one is straight forward enough to explore the possibility of one more.

SDQL: tS(o:points<=14,N=3)=3 and A and season>=1989 and 28.5>=oA(points,N=3)>=14

Basically adding that their opponent has scored modestly over their last three games (14-28.5 ppg)

SU:

158-46-3 (12.68, 77.5%)

   

ATS:

130-73-4 (3.70, 64.0%)

         
  • Liked by
Reply
Cancel
0 on August 6, 2015

I like that Kyle. Possibly too many arbitrary things going on with this one though.

You have:
1. Under 14 points
2. Since 1989
3. 14 to 28.5

What happens when you change any of those up a little. Hard to check that out.

This is something I’d call a “back pocket” trend. I wouldn’t really want to go against it, but I wouldn’t base a bet off of it.

  • Liked by
Reply
Cancel