We are offering a free trial of the Killersports newsletter this week and I want to use the opportunity to highlight an early season system from the newsletter. If you want to check out everything the newsletter has to offers, visit http://killersports.com/Download/Temp/SBB_70216_ks_report_2015_2.pdf
SYSTEM: Teams in the first four week of the season that are road dogs of less than a TD and won less than seven games last season are 127-69-9 ATS (64.8%).
SDQL Text: week<=4 and tpS(W)<7 and 6.5>=line>0 and A
The NFL is a league of constant change where good teams fall off and bad teams improve all of the time. Early in the season, many of these lines already reflect the changes or perceived changes. However, we have found a spot where improving teams are undervalued in the early going.
Teams in the first four week of the season that are road dogs of less than a TD and won less than seven games last season are 127-69-9 ATS (64.8%).
What we like about this system is how the lines fall into an area that is completely nondescript. When scanning lines during the first few weeks of the season, it would stand out if a bad team from a season ago was road favorite or a huge underdog, but seeing these teams as a small or medium road dog is exactly what would be casually expected, not alerting bettors to potential value right off the bat.
This system went just 10-9 in the 2013 and 2014 season, but you do not have to look back much further to see its massive potential. In the 2011 and 2012 seasons, the system was 15-3 ATS. And already this season, these underdogs have gone 2-0 with Tennessee and NY Giants both covering comfortably in week one.
This week, the system is currently active on three teams though we expect by kickoff there will only be one left to focus our interest on. Tennessee is an ever so slight underdog in Cleveland and is likely to be favored by game time and the Jets are 6.5-point dogs at Indianapolis in a game likely to be at 7+ points by kickoff. That leaves Atlanta, who is a nondescript 2.5-point dog traveling to the Giants this week.