We’ve made one of our 10 NCAA plays as part of a monster slate going today complimentary and I wanted to show it here so win (or lose) you can see how multiple systems and trends using SDQL are incorporated into our daily selections (and share a few nice systems along the way). This is one of full selections (though the lowest rated play of the day) and is in the exact format with SDQL included(!!) as our other football plays.
Kyle, SportsBook Breakers
4-STAR AIR FORCE -16.5 over Army – Air Force has been in almost unheard of territory with their running game the past two weeks with over 900 yards on the ground. That steady play is going to be particularly success against a team that follows the same blue print, just not quite as successfully. Look for Air Force to keep rolling here.
Last week, they went on the road and absolutely crushed Hawaii, 58-7. Home teams coming off a win by more than 35 points are 695-526-26 ATS (H and p:margin>35).
Those 58 points alone were significantly more than the total in this game. Teams in games where the total is under 50, and that is less points than they scored last game are 147-103-7 ATS (p:points>total and total<50).
And they basically did it entirely on the ground. Air Force carried the ball an insane 83 times in that game for 496 yards. They threw the ball just nine times for 80 yards. Teams that won by more than four points last game despite not throwing for more than 100 yards are 223-172-6 ATS (p:passing yards<=100 and p:margin>4).
Army meanwhile, just 2-6 on the season, suffered a narrow 38-31 loss to Rice last week. Teams that are no better than .250 on the season in at least game six, if they lost by single digits last week while scoring at least 17 points are 286-364-14 ATS (WP<=25 and game number>=6 and -9<=p:margin<=-1 and p:points>=17).
They had success on the ground in that game as well, with 378 yards on the ground. Army is 0-10 ATS (-13.35 ppg) since September 24, 2011 on the road off a game as a dog where they rushed for at least 200 yards (team=ARMY and A and p:rushing yards>=200 and p:D and date>=20110924).
Forcing a pair of turnovers is what really helped keep them in the game. Army is 0-8 ATS (-8.88 ppg) since Nov 12, 2011 and as a dog of more than three points off a game as a dog where they forced at least two turnovers (team=ARMY and 3<line and po:turnovers>=2 and p:D and date>=20111112).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: AIR FORCE by 27