This is the last pick of the season. I don’t know half of the CFL teams half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of them half as well as they deserve. Let’s tentatively consider passing on this one. Here is my selection and long winded writeup on it (a script more or less for our radio show later in the day):
||Nov 29 6:05 pm
||Ottawa vs Edmonton
Take: Ottawa +7
The raw numbers seem pretty convinced that, in this game, things should stay within a point and that is the primary thing I am looking at. The play passes a series of other checks I look at between the raw numbers and some single stats on extremes.
Remember that, in CFL, the key margins are a bit different than other North American football sports. In the last two season, by occurrence, they were: 3,7,1,10,4,2,8,6,5,… Margins of victory, one and two, happen more often than 4,5,6,10 in CFL! I’m not convinced that even big fans of the sport realize how indicative just that alone is of a fundamental difference between CFL and American Football; and on a side note, with all of the bad directions the NFL has been going in, I’m not sure that what CFL has done lately is all that bad…
Here were the key margins of victory in CFL for the playoffs (3,7,1,10 etc. were for regular season) by occurrence in database history (ie from 2007): 4,3,8,10,16,2,7,22 ; fyi, in such a small sample size, I’d only take 4 and 3 very seriously, but the point is: these games are closer than regular season games. No surprise really.
*On the blind, The underdog has gone 22-14-3 61.1% ATS in CFL playoffs in database history (ie. from 2007). 19-7 ATS (73.1%)
between 3 and 10. SDQL: playoffs = 1 and 10>line>3
*In database history, Favorites off of a divisional home win are just 39-66-1 ATS (62.9% fade)
. SDQL: F and p:HW and division=po:division *0-20 ATS
on line between -5.5 and -7.5!
In NFL, Dogs are 80-69-4 (53.7%) ATS in the playoffs.
In NCAAFB, Dogs are 364-332.8 ATS (52.3%) in the playoffs.
22-14-3 61.1% ATS in CFL playoffs
For a total of 466-405 ATS (53.5%) in all North American Football (not counting arena because I don’t have the numbers, but you see the idea): In marquee games, pick the dog. This is when the average office pool Joes come out betting the favorites thinking the spread won’t matter.