ATS revenge (NFL)

Updated on September 16, 2015 in NFL Betting Trends
3 on September 10, 2015

If there’s any logic to this small sample size, what do you think it is..??

A homedog (HD), coming of a win (p:W) with both SU (P:L and PP:L and PPP:L) and ATS (P:ATSL and PP:ATSL and PPP:ATSL) revenge from the last 3 previous matchups is 21-8 ATS but also 19-10 W/L SU as a dog.
Also (you might think it’s backfitted) it must be before week=10 (week<10). The reason that I don’t think it’s backfitted is, that I think the team that who comes out on top, is improved or has learned from the previous matchups but since it’s before week 10, theres still a lot of focus on last seasons results – especially if they haven’t had a matchup this season. I think that the public pay to much attention to the previous matchups and forget the changes in both teams since last matchup/season. Adding no matchups in this sesason (P:season!=season) and it improves to 19-7 ATS and 18-8 SU as a dog. I believe that tends to show, that the team is improved from last season while the previous winning team might even be weakened.

Do you think that the opening line is put to high by the bookies because of the 3 previous losses, or is it pushed there by the public because of the same reason..??

Full SDQL: HD and p:W and P:ATSL and PP:ATSL and PPP:ATSL and week<10 and P:L and PP:L and PPP:L
Considder adding and P:season!=season.

Bare with me. It’s my first post in here.

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0 on September 10, 2015

The main concern here for me is the few number of games in the NFL you have vs each other over the years. In the MLB, NBA or NHL revenge situations may occur more often.
So the main question may be: Do Teams keep their playing styles, strengths and philosophy over a period of 3+ seasons?

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0 on September 13, 2015

I’ve been thinking about the revenge factor while capping my Week 1 games, including it into a few early season profiles, and in this era of free agency I don’t think revenge has nearly the impact it used to have. 

One or two years, okay, I could see some of these players and coaches having something for each other. Divisional, yes, I think there is something to consider. But as for teams who only see each other once every four years, there are probably much bigger factors to consider.

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0 on September 16, 2015

Here is another simplified version of that:

AD and P:HL and p:A

Road dog seeking revenge for a home loss off of a road game:

ATS: 236-182-6 (1.02, 56.5%)
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