Alternative Ways to Profit

Updated on May 21, 2017 in General Discussion
15 on December 12, 2016

I believe it was recently stated in the PCG newsletter that someone was having fun with the number of ways to win with the college basketball model. Is anyone willing to share alternative ways to successfully play PCG’s model?

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0 on December 12, 2016

Thanks for making this thread, I would also be interested to hear any ideas on capping NCCAB with the pcg raw numbers. Myself, I have been playing small underdogs that have a greater ATSm. Basically false favorites to win outright. I don’t know the actual results but they seem to do pretty good and its +money bet.

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2 on December 13, 2016

In College Hoops, I just do what he says about the half point edge or more and bet all of the games. I’m up about 60 units now. Yesterday was 4-0. Those raw numbers are insanely good.

In NFL, he says to look for one touchdown or more ATS edges, but I’ve found greater success looking at smaller edges as well and looking for consensus between the sdql systems of his and some of my own. I’ve been hitting between 55 and 59% last few years doing that.

Same thing as NFL for everything else really: positive raw numbers leans plus sdql systems or my own other factors like weather and injuries and line movement.

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on December 13, 2016

Wow you play every single game above 0.5 edge…some days that that is alot of games but i guess that would be the way to go if you have the bankroll to straight bet that many games.

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on December 18, 2016
Wow you play every single game above 0.5 edge…some days that that is alot of games but i guess that would be the way to go if you have the bankroll to straight bet that many games.From sportcap

 Yes. I’m not sure what you mean about now having the bankroll. Can you not just lower your unit size?

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6 on December 13, 2016

The ONLY thing I ever do is: Positive Raw number edge + Public fade
That’s it. Super simple and works beautifully.

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on December 16, 2016

Hey curious! interested in hearing more about the (+) raw number edge + pub fade. Im new to capping and looking for a simple system to follow. can you explain or give an example as to how you do it? thanks!

Subscriber
on December 17, 2016

As far as public fade, from which site are you gathering the data from? For instance, 40% of covers have the Florida Panthers ML right now while at pregame, 56% are on the Panthers ML.

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on December 19, 2016
As far as public fade, from which site are you gathering the data from? For instance, 40% of covers have the Florida Panthers ML right now while at pregame, 56% are on the Panthers ML.From HossWilbur

 
I used a combination of sources; however, there is an important thing to consider when looking at bet percents: remember 10-0 is 100%, but it isn’t all that meaningful so the time of day matters and I want about a minimum of 500 or so bets in on a game before I say, ‘this is the public fade’ and vic versa.

With that said, one source in particular I like is http://www.wunderdog.com/public-consensus/NFL.html as it shows the number of bets for each proposition. 

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on December 19, 2016
Hey curious! interested in hearing more about the (+) raw number edge + pub fade. Im new to capping and looking for a simple system to follow. can you explain or give an example as to how you do it? thanks!From bkbento

 
Okay sure. So yesterday (December 18th, 2016), for NFL, PCG Raw numbers were p:ATSm +5.71 on Philadelphia +5.5 over the Ravens. In addition, and at the time I looked wunderdog’s thing in my last response was saying 573 bets for the Eagles and 1259 going the other way. So I had a situation where the raw numbers were fairly strong and it was on the public fade.

Also, at the time I looked, Philly was +6 at my book so better than what the raw numbers logged. There were a few others, but that was the best situation I had on Sunday. PCG didn’t email out Philly as a bet I guess because the edge wasn’t large enough? Who knows, but there’s a ton of value in the smaller edges if you find a favorable line movement after his posting plus it is a strong public fade (NOT PERCENTAGE-WISE!). ::tip o’ the hat::

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on December 19, 2016

great info . thanks for the wunderdog link, for the # of bets and money is more meaningful than just the percentages. And of course the raw numbers.

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on May 10, 2017

Rough estimate of units gained a year doing raw number + public fade?

Is it raw number + public fade for baseball as well? Sides as well as totals?

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3 on March 23, 2017

Forgive me but what is PCG??

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on March 25, 2017

www.procomputergambler.net

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on April 12, 2017

Thank you.

Subscriber
on May 21, 2017

procomputergambler

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