867-387 (69.1%) +178.59, +7.9% roi Find

Updated on August 11, 2015 in Sports Betting Research
3 on August 1, 2015

In MLB:

1. Late in Regular season
2. Large Favorite (over -150); No more than -300
3. Very bad batting average (<=0.26)
4. Vs. Pitcher with good ERA (<=4.5)

tA(hits/at bats) <= .26 and -150>line>=-300  and o:STDSERA <= 4.5 and 10>month>6

Nice contrarian set up.

  • Liked by
  • PK60
  • beermoney
Reply
0 on August 2, 2015

Not really “contrarian” if you’re betting a chalky favorite, but I get the point. Or can it be contrarian to be a big favorite?

Anyways, I have two extra simple things that tighten this up to:
695-283 71.1% and +191.51 units +10.8% roi 

*Team wasn’t shut out last game.
*Their opponent today didn’t score more than 6 runs last game.

Great forum by the way! I made purchased your PCG trends at the trend mart recently fyi. Thanks

  • Liked by
Reply
Cancel
0 on August 2, 2015

bm,

I think these days, a Favorite system can be contrarian especially when things get chalky and hard for most people to stomach. The point is and always will be, finding the edge / value. Not looking explicitly for dogs or favorites. Not that it matters + just my opinion.

  • Liked by
Reply
Cancel
0 on August 11, 2015

Good numbers and it looks like this is live on three games today. I suppose one way of getting around the chalk in this angle would be to identify the game and then determine whether a run line play, laying a run, or blending them with a money line bet made the most sense once other factors were accounted for.

  • Liked by
Reply
Cancel