78-32-2 70.9% ATS NCAAF System

Updated on November 10, 2015 in NCAAF Betting Trends
6 on October 14, 2015

Here’s another system that revolves around momentum in College Football.

The System factors:

Two Factor version:
1. Team just put up over 7 yards per play last game
2. They’re a big favorite over 23 points

166-126-8 56.8% ATS

 (p:passing yards+p:rushing yards)/(p:passes+p:rushes)>7 and line<-23
 

Five Factor Version:
3. If you cap that line at -32 points (no more than) it is: 105-60-4 63.6% ATS

 (p:passing yards+p:rushing yards)/(p:passes+p:rushes)>7 and -32<line<-23
 

4. Post week 3 it is:
83-37-2 ATS 69.2% ATS

 (p:passing yards + p:rushing yards) / (p:passes + p:rushes) > 7 and week > 3 and -32 < line < -23
 

5. Finally, eliminating odd days: Friday and Sunday makes it:
78-32-2 (+4.88 ppg, 70.9%) ATS

 (p:passing yards + p:rushing yards) / (p:passes + p:rushes) > 7 and week > 3 and -32 < line < -23 and day!=Friday and day!=Sunday
 
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0 on October 27, 2015

I think the past week 3 addition makes a ton of sense here.  It works two fold, eliminating the complete early season mismatches where the big yardage can occur, but maybe not be as meaningful as it would seem, as well as those same type big line games the next week.

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0 on October 27, 2015

I did a little playing around with your initial system as well, and one other small note to look at is that teams that did not win by double digits in that previous game were a rough 14-24-1 ATS in the spot.  Another possible factor to add in.

Kyle
SportsBook Breakers

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0 on October 27, 2015

Thanks Kyle. Do you have the SDQL on that?

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0 on October 28, 2015

Sure thing. 

This was the SDQL text to isolate those games: 
(p:passing yards+p:rushing yards)/(p:passes+p:rushes)>7 and line<-23 and p:margin<10

And then the SDQL text to eliminate them:
(p:passing yards+p:rushing yards)/(p:passes+p:rushes)>7 and line<-23 and p:margin>=10

Only a marginal improvement in result, but I think the end result can be directly tied in to the value of the yards per play.

Kyle
SBB

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0 on November 9, 2015

Add one more parameter and you have a 93.8 percent angle that applies TWICE this week.

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0 on November 10, 2015

Nice. Already looking at Boise and Sd state

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