55-29-1 ATS (65.5%) Week 3 NFL System

Updated on October 5, 2015 in NFL Betting Trends
7 on September 23, 2015

Here’s a fun trend:

In NFL Week 3, validated (?) 2-0 teams have strived over 0-2 teams going 28-9 (+7.46 ppg) SU and 21-16-0 ATS. So have 1-1 teams off a win facing another 1-1 team off a loss at 26-15-3 (63.4%) ATS.

Combine the two using the following SDQL:

 week=3 and WP>=50 and o:WP<=50 and p:W and op:L
 
…and you have 107-63-0 SU and 95-71-4 57.2% ATS

For shits and giggles add on these stipulations

1. Eliminate playing Home teams that just won on the road.
2. Eliminate fading opponents playing at a new site.

week=3 and WP>=50 and o:WP<=50 and p:W and op:L and (site=p:site or A) and op:site!=o:site
 

That comes to 50-35 SU and 55-29-1 65.5% ATS

Active This Week On:
CAR +2.5
CIN -3
Buccs +6.5
PIT -1
DEN PK
and
GB -7

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0 on September 26, 2015

I think if you somehow filtered out teams in a let down spot, this would be gold. Maybe the big spread like Green Bay. They’re the first that would come to mind that might be a big upset against the Chiefs.

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0 on September 27, 2015
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0 on September 27, 2015

Nice one. I thought Cinci was a good one there but passed. I have the number on Green Bay, but this is a big let down spot. I think there is a pretty good chance KC +7 covers despite the “numbers”

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0 on September 27, 2015

Win
Win
Loss
Win
Win

4-1 Packers tonight. Awesome job.

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0 on September 28, 2015

4-1 with GB as the last one. tnx

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0 on September 29, 2015

Unreal. Looking like 5-1 now.Green Bay up 24-7

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0 on October 5, 2015

For Week 5:

It seems there are several profitable spots:

1. Teams off of a loss in danger of falling onto .500

week = 5 and wins = 2 and losses = 1 and p:L
15-7-0 68.2% ATS

2. 1-3 Teams that either got their first win or worsened their record last game.

week = 5 and wins = 1 and losses=3
59-46-3 56.2% ATS

Anyone have anything else?

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