+137.7 Units In MLB

Updated on August 6, 2015 in MLB Betting Trends
9 on July 27, 2015

Over the years I have discovered and traded many systems that hold up. Some trace back to the days of the Pointspread Analyzer software, which was a game-changer for many of us. I’ve spend who knows how many thousands of dollars on databases and software.

I will be happy to share some over time as long as they get reciprocated. Here is my first contribution in MLB.

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0 on July 28, 2015

Thanks for posting rtg.

In your query you have:

... and p:division=op:division ...

First of all, no reason really to ever query ‘previous division’ for a team as it would have been the same as today; Second, ‘ p:division=op:division’ says, team’s division is the same as the opponent’s (for both of their last games). That is the same as ‘DIV’ so I think you meant to say:

DIV and p:W and p:division=po:division and line>=-100 and o:WP<50

Which is, division game now and last game was a division game as well.
Comes to 917-1034 +109.55 units, +5.6% roi.

Gotta be careful with the little details.

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0 on July 28, 2015

Okay yes I get systems from different sources and will not perfect on the SDQL language, most I’m able to transfer correctly.

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0 on July 28, 2015

No worries. Helps to put what you want to search in plain english too. Remember: the focus of the forum is application of sdql and sports betting research. Not to get bogged down on the technical stuff.

What is the logic in this system for you?

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0 on July 29, 2015

If you take out the previous game having a divisional opponent you get the original results.
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&su=1&ou=1&sdql=p%3AW+and+division%3Do%3Adivision+and+line%3E%3D-100+and+o%3AWP%3C50&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

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2 on July 29, 2015

So, Division Dog off a win vs. sub .500 team.

I like that. “Division” makes things closer to a coin toss.
Other team being below .500 makes things closer to a coin toss.
Coin toss parameters are what I always want to play with on dog systems.

Here’s what I’d do with this one:

#1Eliminate April – You have win percent as a parameter. Most stats mean nothing in the first month. April profits, but the roi is extremely low. Filtering out the first month makes this:
697-723 +135.64 units, +9.6% roi.

#2 – No odd totals – Bring it in to 10.5 or less
675-702 +10.0% roi

#3 – Avoid blowouts – Nothing makes a team cocky and in for a let down than a huge win they just had. Previous margin is under 8 runs.
625-624 +154.64 units, +12.4% roi SU

#4 – Our dog is never more than 10 games behind opponent – Keep things competitive. It doesn’t matter if our team is behind or ahead of the other divisional opponent, but avoiding situations where our dog is way way far behind improves this to:
598-588 +153.06 +12.9% roi SU

p:W and division=o:division and D and o:WP<50 and month>4 and total<11 and p:margin<8 and wins-o:wins>=-10

This profited 11 out of 12 seasons. Not bad at all.
Might seem like a lot of extra parameters, but I only felt comfortable doing that because you presented a good thing in its simpler form.

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on July 29, 2015

Amazing work. PCG and Rockytg. Definitely going to store this one.

What about the idea of looking at days of the week for dogs? Wouldn’t road dogs do better when it isn’t a marquee Sunday or something?

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on July 29, 2015

For this season the system is 31-34 (will be 32-34 because KC is losing right now). If we look at the rest of the season (month > 7), the system profited 8 out of 11 seasons.

Would you play that system even if the season has started?

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0 on July 29, 2015

Like the refinements. Re: logic, that is a big debate altogether. I think where I got it, the source loves divisional rivalry dogs. But once something gets 100 units of profit, I take the attitude that I need a reason to ignore it. 

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0 on August 6, 2015

Try to reciprocate something for ya. Not as big of a sample size, but wins at 51.5% clip with 235 games at avg odd of +153.8.

month!=4 and WP<47 and o:WP>50 and D and op:WOW and (SG=1 or SG=2)

1. Eliminated April as win percent means nothing at that point.
2. The public should be all over a favorite off an exciting win so we think the dog may be undervalued.

SG 1 and 2 have better results than SG 3 and 4. Any guesses to logical reason for this? Favorite may come in emotionally drained and underestimate opponent early in the series?

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