For an 108-66-1 62.1% ATS clip:
1. Field goal to Two TD favorite
2. Off of a blowout (35 pt.+) conference blowout win
3. If is late season (week 10 to 14).
-14<line<-3.5 and 67>p:margin>35 and p:conference=po:conference and 15>week>9
For me, this one works because it is based around the idea that momentum is crucial in NCAAF. Hard to start a train barreling down the tracks…
I think there are things you can do to this one though to strengthen the premise. I’ll pose the question: why is the line small here? What could make this a stealthy contrarian bet?
Look forward to your responses on that.
I have a 98-19 subset on this one with just 2 extra parameters.