Looking ahead at week 1, several trends small trends stand out. The sample sizes are small, but the margins are notable. One of the things the makes NFL one of the hardest sports to handicap is the relatively smaller sample size of most trends that trend-setting sifts to the top. For example:
- The Browns are 0-17 ATS since Jan 01, 2017 – 17 games but a massive -10.53 ppg average
- The Packers are 16-0 OU (+12.12 ppg) as a favorite of more than six points vs a team with the same record.
- The Steelers are 3-20-1 OU (-7.10 ppg) since Oct 13, 2013 as a road favorite
- The Vikings are 28-8-2 ATS (3.59 ppg) since Nov 07, 2013 at home
Looks pretty good right? 4 solid bets…
Maybe…but then again maybe not. The Vikings are 28-8-2 ATS at home, and that is amazing, but look at what the line was historically: average -1.9 ppg, and we have the Vikings, with zero games under their belts in Week 1 lined now at -4.5
Capping the NFL is more about forgetting what you know, and making an attempt to ride on the coat-tails of the linesmakers. Or…if you think you’re just as savvy and want to overthink that basic strategy, you can more or less fade the public nearly on the blind in NFL. So much more the case than most of the other sports we look at. NFL = Low volume; big public week to week overreactions to nearly meaningless data. Typically, we like the thrill of being right on NFL games, but rare expect as much profit as we might see during say an NCAABB season.
Nonetheless, every once in a while, something notable comes along. We’ll usually have 3-5 of these strikingly simple, 150 games plus sample size, sub 0.05 p-value record, low number of condition situations that appear to have what we need to go hard on.
On the house, for week one, we have a trend that has 127 games in the books, three primary conditions, two minor filters and a record of 78-43-6 ATS (64.5%) — that is a solid standard score of 3.11
Here is the most key condition:
#1. We want a team that didn’t do well last season: 2 games or more below .500 record
#2. We are focusing only on early season: first half or just week 1 produces a slight lean 765-719-41 ATS for the entire first half, but thanks to a fairly linear trend upwards for our previous season poor-performers, Week 1 alone produces a 149-114-8 ATS record (56.7%)!
It gets better with another logical filter, but for now, the SDQL we’re using to query this is very simple:
SDQL= PRSW<=6 and week=1 ...and we have the following teams as active plays: Broncos, Browns, Colts, Dolphins, Giants, Bears, Texans, Buccs, 49ers, Jets, and the Raiders. Let's try and hone in on the best of that platter: #3. Let's just look at dogs: The record is now 111-79-6 ATS (59.0% ATS) Minor / optional filters: If we take home dogs +6 points or larger and road dogs no larger than 12 points, the record is 78-43-6 ATS (64.5%). Consider taking that to the bank in Week 1 perhaps with a little extra capping of your own or using some of our other active PCG Sports Betting NFL Systems available at the Trend Mart via discount link: http://killersports.com/trend_mart?store=PCG&discount_code=PCG_yH6zz2 Active on the Browns, Bears, Texans, Buccs, 49ers and Jets! Best of luck, PCG (ProComputerGambler.net)