Thanks. The NFLX coaching theory has certainly been a productive way to go about handicapping the NFLX, but like many things that are obvious, the odds makers apparently have caught up, and it has not been very predictive of late. I have become very selective in the process the last few years. What was interesting was the rising totals in NFLX games.
From 2009-13 totals posted 36.5 or less (37 very key #), the over was 93-57, while 37 and up the over was 85-84. Odds makers kept chasing the rising totals, and appeared to catch up last year, as totals of 36.5 or less were 0-3 to the over, and all of those occurred in week 1 or HOF game.
So that window has been closed now as well. So now we may see a reversal, as last year totals in the NFLX that were posted from 44 and up went 9-2-1 o the under. remember, just 1 yr, and small data set, but the window may be open to wager under on the new big totals. (not enough data for me, but on my radar). By the same token, the disappearing low totals, in the 30s, were 7-2 to the under, so the adjustment may be too universal across the board and the low totals have gone too far.