RE: Open Ended MLB Starter Fade System

Here is my opinion on that, and again, just my opinion, and philosophy. I would never wager on that system, for the simple reason it shows a 1.4% ROI. You could almost get that return on a simple savings account interest, and certainly a CD, and I wouldn’t invest in either of those either. Then there is this factor. Your assuming the closing line that the database uses for each play was exactly what you were able to bet the game on. That is certainly untrue. What if the lines you wagered using this system were 1.4 cents worse than what you see in the database that shows? Your left with 0% ROI, and in a different scenario, what if the line wagered vs line used to log the system in the database was off by 5 cents? (very reasonable to assume), you are -3.6%!  When the “profit” threshold is 1.4% that is a huge RED FLAG for me, as represented from above. I never consider anything, or any situation to be deemed reasonable to use unless the ROI is 10% or greater on a high volume of games. The z-score on that system deems it non-predictive. Your concept is very good, and I agree with it, lots of games, simple limited variables, but in this case, I’d stay far away!