RE: Open Ended MLB Starter Fade System

I like that!

here is something to consider, and how I build a system:


month=9 and STDSERA<2.35 and AF and line>=-140 and p:W

This returns over 10%, but that isn’t the important part, as you will see.

The components of the system are the important parts, and here is why. Each component connector is playing to the contrarian “advantaged side.”

The following are the ROI’s comparison of the components, not profitable, but 100% leaning, and leading to the advantaged side

month=9 and AF                             -3.0%     -0.6%   (advantage dog)
AF and line>=140                            -3.5%     -0.6%     (advantage dog)
AF and STDSERA<2.35                 -2.6%      -1.2%   (advantage dog)
AF and p:W                                     -3.3%      -0.3%   (advantage dog)
AF and p:W and month=9               -5.3%      +2.5%  advantage dog)

there are all the components of the system, mixed and matched in every way. What you can see is, all components, are the advantaged side, not necessarily the profitable side. So when your dealing with a set of variables, it helps to eliminate just using any variable to make the system look better than it really is, and thus allows us a higher degree of confidence that we are working from skill, not accident, and working from meaningful additions, not just additions that makes something look better. This is the biggest flaw I often find in betting systems that I see posted out there, they look good, you can make them sound good, but they have red flags in many cases that suggest they are contrived by accidental discovery, by inserting meaningless variables.

I hope this helps some, and I hope I’m not going over the top of the skill set of most reading this. I can apply the reasoning for each variable in depth, and I’m sure you could figure it out

Baseball has you believe it is all about the pitcher. What is better than taking an elite pitcher on the road and having to lay less than -140? As seen above it is the disadvantaged side (AF and line>=-140)  -3.5% on  -0.4%  against  so we are working from a not profitable 3.1% advantage, which in and of itself is not profitable, but when you learn what the advantaged sides are, many of which are profitable (AF and p:W and month=9               -5.3%      +2.5%  advantage dog), you begin to fundamentally discover how to create a better system, that isn’t based on intentional distortion of a system by selecting a meaningless variable that makes it look good!

There is so much more to write, but for now that should open up some minds I hope.