That is 0.8% roi. So that answers my question. You look for 10%+ by the end of the process; not from the start. I think that was what the original poster was getting at as well. Start with a robust simple concept and do whatever magic you do from there.
I guess my only argument would be that sportsprediction’s base system isn’t exactly simple. You need 4 things to happen vs. 1 thing for yours.