Hey curious! interested in hearing more about the (+) raw number edge + pub fade. Im new to capping and looking for a simple system to follow. can you explain or give an example as to how you do it? thanks!
Okay sure. So yesterday (December 18th, 2016), for NFL, PCG Raw numbers were p:ATSm +5.71 on Philadelphia +5.5 over the Ravens. In addition, and at the time I looked wunderdog’s thing in my last response was saying 573 bets for the Eagles and 1259 going the other way. So I had a situation where the raw numbers were fairly strong and it was on the public fade.
Also, at the time I looked, Philly was +6 at my book so better than what the raw numbers logged. There were a few others, but that was the best situation I had on Sunday. PCG didn’t email out Philly as a bet I guess because the edge wasn’t large enough? Who knows, but there’s a ton of value in the smaller edges if you find a favorable line movement after his posting plus it is a strong public fade (NOT PERCENTAGE-WISE!). ::tip o’ the hat::