No one has ever done a time study on how many minutes or hours the average handicapper spends in preparing for a day of betting on sports but you can be assured it is not much. Most bettors think you can grab a local newspaper, spend 45 seconds looking at betting lines that are at least 24 hours old and then pick five or six winners. It is as if they believe they have stored in their brains all the data and informationthey need to beat the game. By simple adding 45 seconds a day of handicapping , they believe they can just spew out those winners.
It is no wonder bettors lose in a world where they have a legitimate chance to win every single day. Handicapping sports is a difficult, time-consuming business, but you can consistently win at it if you can get past the 45 seconds a day method of analysis.
Handicapping A Big Day…
Handicapping a big day, such as a Saturday, when there are dozens of games from which to pick, you may spend up to as many as 20 hours getting ready for it. Last week, this handicapper spent more than 10 hours on Friday handicapping the Saturday card, and then put in a full 12-hour day on Saturday doing the same thing.
The first thing I do when I am handicapping a day on which there are a great number of games, which also mean a great number of opportunities, is to completely handicap the card the day before, setting aside all the games in which I think there is some possible edge. Then I come back the next day and do it all over again, seeing if my perspective is the same the second time around. Many times it is not, as later data and information, or insight makes other contest more playable.
What You Pass on is More Important Than What You Play…
After I have decided which 15-20 games offer the best chance to win, I then revisit each game to try to makes a case for both sides. This is a key juncture in handicapping, and it never surprises me when half of the 15-20 games fall by the wayside, since you can truly make a case for both sides in about 50 percent of the contests. Needless to say, if you can makes a case for both sides, the game is a pass.
When the process is all over, I have five or six games which seem to offer the most edges – and those are the games I bet. There was no magic formula involved in any of it – just hours of intense tedious focused analysis.
And, once into the betting arena there still are no assurances you will bet on anything but winners. There is no way to determine in advance that you quarterback would be sacked six times and fumble three times. Also, there is no way to predict the Washington Wizards, a supposedly professional basketball team, would hit 33 percent from the floor. The “X Factor,” the unknown, is always looking over the bettor’s shoulder. But when you work at this business and take the edges, you chances for success increase dramatically.